Monday Night Football: Ravens vs. Chiefs, 8:15 pm. | TV: ESPN
Betting the NFL is complicated, and I tell you this despite going 3-0 in my bets on Sunday. My Monday Night Football Pick:
The Pick: Chiefs +3.5 (-110): Betting the NFL is complicated, and I tell you this despite going 3-0 in my bets on Sunday. There’s so much action on NFL games that sportsbooks devote an ungodly amount of time and energy to nailing every aspect of their lines, making it exceedingly difficult to find an edge you can exploit. That’s why sometimes you don’t need math and just some common sense.
When you’re getting points with Patrick Mahomes, take the points.
Yes, Baltimore is a very good team, and it has its own outstanding quarterback in Lamar Jackson. The Ravens could easily win this game and might go on to win the Super Bowl this year. But we’re talking about Patrick Mahomes here. And he’s getting points. The Chiefs have been underdogs with Mahomes as their starter six times, and they’ve gone 5-0-1 against the spread. The lone push was their thrilling 54-51 loss to the Rams on Monday Night Football last season. As fantastic as Lamar Jackson is, the Ravens are only 4-7 ATS when favored at home with him at QB.
Don’t overthink this one. It might not win, but it won’t be because you were wrong.
Key Trend: The Chiefs are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 road games.
Here’s what SportsLine is saying about the game: The SportsLine projection model has simulated the Monday Night Football matchup 10,000 times and is overwhelmingly leaning one way.